Gold price to range between 7% decline and a 20%
gain in FY26: SmartWealth.ai – a smallcase manager
~ Over the past 10 years Akshaya
Trithya (2016–2025), Gold has given a 12.3% CAGR returns
Mumbai,
29th April, 2025: SmartWealth.ai – a smallcase manager – report on
Gold reveals that over the past 10 years (2016–2025), the compounded annual
growth rate (CAGR) of Gold has been approximately 12.3%, which has caught up
with the 11.4% CAGR returns of Nifty50 index.
smallcase
Manager SmartWealth.ai’s Diversified Momentum Investing (DMI) framework reveals
that over the next month, Equities & Gold may exhibit following tendencies:
•
Equities (Nifty 50) exhibit a mild downward bias, though volatility
remains elevated. We estimate a potential range between a 7% decline and a
3% gain.
•
Gold continues to show a slight upward bias, with an expected range
between a 4% decline and a 5% gain.
Data indicates a potential for 3% to 7% modest
increase in gold prices by the next Akshaya Tritiya in 2026. However,
macro-economic and geo-political uncertainties could drive swings between a 7%
decline and 20% gain over the current levels.
In such a
regime, diversification and dynamic risk management are critical.
Gold, long treasured for its emotional, economic,
and ornamental value, continues to shine as a timeless asset in investor
portfolios. According to the report, over the period of 10 years of Akshaya
Tritiya, Gold price has increased by 166.79%
|
Year |
Akshaya Tritiya Date |
Gold Price (INR/10g) |
YoY % Change |
|
2015 |
April 21 |
₹26,800 |
-7% |
|
2016 |
May 9 |
₹29,600 |
+10% |
|
2017 |
April 28 |
₹29,100 |
-2% |
|
2018 |
April 18 |
₹31,000 |
+6.5% |
|
2019 |
May 7 |
₹32,700 |
+5.5% |
|
2020 |
April 26 |
₹46,000 |
+41% |
|
2021 |
May 14 |
₹47,900 |
+4.1% |
|
2022 |
May 3 |
₹51,500 |
+7.5% |
|
2023 |
April 22 |
₹60,000 |
+16.5% |
|
2024 |
May 10 |
₹71,500 |
+19.2% |
Pankaj
Singh, smallcase Manager, Founder & Principal Researcher, SmartWealth.ai said, “The past year has been
an outlier in market behaviour. The Nifty 50 has delivered over 7% returns,
while gold has surged by more than 30%. This profile of performance in equity
and gold is exceptionally rare, with a historical probability of occurrence
below 2%. Looking ahead, the market regime and geopolitical environment remain
highly uncertain, making even short-term forecasts challenging. It is important
to include gold in a portfolio—not necessarily in a traditional buy-and-hold
manner, but at least as a dynamic diversifier and hedge.”
The smallcase Manager SmartWealth.ai’s report
reveals that gold has consistently acted as a natural hedge during major equity
market downturns over the past 20 years.
Gold has demonstrated its role as an effective
buffer against equity market volatility during several key periods of financial
stress such as The Great Financial Crisis (2007–2009), Eurozone Debt Reckoning
(2010–2012), The Passive Plateau ends in Covid (2017–2020), Pandemic Aftershock
& Stagflation (2021–2023), and Geopolitical Crosswinds (Q3 2024–Present).
|
Financial
Stress Event |
Focussed
Divergence Period |
Nifty
50 |
Gold |
|
The
Great Financial Crisis (2007–2009) |
Oct
2007 – Feb 2009 |
-45% |
+56% |
|
Eurozone
Debt Reckoning (2010–2012) |
Nov
2010 – Dec 2011 |
-24% |
+35% |
|
The
Passive Plateau ends in Covid (2017–2020) |
Sep
2018 – Jul 2020 |
-26% |
+42% |
|
Pandemic
Aftershock & Stagflation (2021–2023) |
Nov
2021 – Mar 2023 |
-3% |
+24% |
|
Geopolitical
Crosswinds (Q3 2024–Present) |
Oct
2024 – Apr 2025 |
-6% |
+24% |
“Gold tends
to retain its value over time, making it a popular store of wealth when
inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies. When a local currency
weakens (especially the U.S. dollar), gold prices often rise, presenting an
opportunity for preserving value in real terms. During times of crisis—such as
recessions, wars, or financial system instability—investors often flock to gold
as a "safe haven" asset. Gold often shows low or negative correlation
with equities, so it can provide balance during stock market downturns”, added Pankaj Singh, smallcase
Manager.
Akshaya
Tritiya is considered an auspicious day for buying gold, investing, or starting
new ventures, symbolizing lasting prosperity and good fortune.
About
smallcase:
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Disclaimer
& Terms:
This
report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment
advice. All investments carry inherent risks, and investors should perform
their own due diligence before making decisions. Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Opinions expressed are subject to change without
notice.
