Investment
Ideas Note – August 2025 by Wallet Wealth
Welcome to
the July 2025 edition of Wallet Wealth Monthly
Market Insight, where we bring you a quick summary of market trends, global
events, regulatory developments, and our recommendations to help you stay
aligned with your financial goals.
Global Headlines
Impacting the Markets
US-Russia Tariff
Tensions
In
a surprising geopolitical move, the U.S. President backed the Russian Act of
2025, proposing a 500% tariff on nations continuing to import fossil fuels
(oil, gas, uranium, etc). This has escalated economic pressure on Russia but
strained U.S. relations with several key allies.
Impact on India:
•
The Indian Rupee
weakened against the U.S. dollar early July.
•
Stock indices like
NIFTY and SENSEX saw declines.
•
Foreign Institutional
Investors (FIIs) turned net sellers.
Stock Market Performance – July 2025
After
an initial rise following Q1FY26 earnings and a normal monsoon, the end of July
was marked by a decrease attributed to developments in U.S. tariffs.
Monthly Index Returns:
|
Index |
July 1, 2025 |
July 31, 2025 |
Gain/Loss |
|
BSE Sensex |
83,697.29 |
81,185.58 |
-3.0% |
|
BSE Midcap |
46,820.97 |
45,781.65 |
-2.2% |
|
BSE Small Cap |
54,594.65 |
53,425.29 |
-2.1% |
Investor Activity in July (₹ Crores):
|
Segment |
FIIs |
Mutual Funds |
|
Equity |
-24,723.48 |
+49,204.79 |
|
Debt |
-1,880.52 |
-17,294.54 |
|
Total |
-26.604 |
31,910.25 |
FIIs
exited both equity and debt markets, while mutual funds remained strong net
buyers in equities, helping maintain domestic market confidence.
Regulatory
Updates
SEBI's Boost for Startups:
SEBI
has relaxed listing rules for start-ups, aiming to deepen capital markets and
attract long-term investors.
RBI's Digital Banking
Norms:
Banks
may now be restricted from showcasing third-party products (including group
entities) on digital channels. This change aims to enhance transparency and
consumer protection.
Major US-Japan Trade Deal
A
landmark $500 billion agreement was signed between the U.S. and Japan. It
includes a 15 % reciprocal tariff, focusing on automobiles and agriculture,
potentially reshaping global trade flows.
Macroeconomic
Snapshot – India
•
GDP (2025): $4.19
Trillion | Rank: #4 globally (Nominal), #3 (PPP)
•
FY26 Growth Estimate:
6.5%
•
Retail Inflation
(June): 2.1% – A 6-year low
•
Policy Repo Rate
(Aug): 5.50% (Neutral stance)
•
10-Yr G-Sec: 6.35% |
5-Yr G-Sec: 6.13%
India on the Rise: $10 Trillion Economy by 2035?
According to Goldman
Sachs, India is on track to become a $10 trillion economy by 2035, powered by
innovation and Global Capability Centres (GCCs), which are expected to generate
$0.5 trillion in gross value and create 20 million jobs.
Investment
Strategy – Our View
Equity Markets
•
Current Market Cap to
GDP ratio is at 135, indicating overvaluation.
•
Avoid lumpsum
investments in equities.
•
Invest in a staggered
manner (20–24 weeks) via SIPs or STPs.
Focus Areas:
•
Large Cap &
Hybrid Funds – Lower volatility, relatively better valuation.
•
Banking &
Financials, Defence Funds – For those open to moderate risk.
•
Avoid fresh small-cap
exposure for now – valuations are high.
Debt Markets
•
Short-Term (<1
year): Ultra-Short/Money Market Funds
•
Medium-Term (~3
years): High-Quality Corporate Bonds, Banking & PSU Debt Funds • Avoid Credit Risk Funds due to ongoing volatility.
If
you have any questions or need portfolio advice, feel free to reach out to your
advisor through 9940116967
S.Sridharan, Founder, https://www.walletwealth.co.in/
Team Wallet Wealth
AMFI
Registered Mutual Fund Distributor
Wallet Wealth LLP, 2nd
Floor, No.8A, 2nd Main Road, Nanganallur, Chennai – 600 061 Ph: 044-48612114
We
will do a free portfolio review. Call 99401 16967 or mail your portfolio to sridharan@walletwealth.co.in
Disclaimer:
The
above information is confidential and intended solely for our clients. It is
based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made
regarding its accuracy or completeness. All views are subject to change without
notice and should not be construed as investment advice without professional
consultation.
