Investment Ideas June 2025 by Wallet Wealth
India’s Digital Economy and Regulatory
Developments
India’s digital economy continues to grow at a robust
pace. In May 2025, digital transactions reached an all-time high of ₹25.14 lakh
crore, underscoring the strength of the country’s digital infrastructure.
In a significant regulatory move, SEBI revised its
investor charter for Investment Advisors and Research Analysts to enhance
transparency in financial markets. The updated charter now outlines the vision,
mission, and scope of services, business practices, investor rights and
responsibilities, and details of grievance redressal mechanisms.
Monetary Policy & Interest Rates
In its June monetary policy meeting, the RBI reduced the
repo rate by 50 basis points—its third rate cut in 2025—aimed at boosting
economic growth. This move is expected to benefit borrowers, especially in the
home and auto loan segments.
To manage surplus liquidity, the RBI also infused ₹23,856
crore into the banking system by purchasing government securities.
Equity Market Performance – June 2025
|
Index
|
June 2, 2025 |
June 30, 2025 |
Change |
|
BSE Sensex |
81,373.75 |
83,606.46 |
+2.7% |
|
BSE Midcap |
45,396.40 |
46,854.46 |
+3.2% |
|
BSE Small Cap |
52,599.94 |
54,690.91 |
+4.0% |
All major market segments delivered positive returns in
June, indicating healthy domestic participation. Sectorally, IT led gains with
a 4.36% rise despite a tepid year-to-date performance. FMCG remained flat,
while financial services, consumer discretionary, and commodities contributed
significantly to Nifty 500’s 3.58% return.
MF & FII Activity – June 2025 (₹ in
Crores)
|
Category
|
FIIs
|
Mutual Funds |
|
Equity |
20,423.64
|
45,518.96 |
|
Debt |
1,517.10 |
-30,911.34 |
|
Total |
21,940.74 |
14,607.62 |
FIIs significantly increased their equity purchases in
June, compared to ₹16,441 crore in May. They also shifted to net buyers in the
debt market. Mutual funds, while reducing equity purchases from the previous
month, remained strong buyers. Debt sales by mutual funds declined sharply
compared to May.
Macroeconomic Indicators & Outlook
• GDP Growth:
RBI projects GDP growth at 6.5% for FY25–26, supported by strong consumption
and public investment. However, trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical
tensions remain key risks.
• World Bank Forecast:
India’s FY26 growth forecast was revised down to 6.3% due to global trade
barriers and reduced capital inflows.
• GST Collections:
June GST revenue stood at ₹1.85 lakh crore, a 6.2% YoY increase, although down
8% from May.
Inflation
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation declined to 2.82% in
May. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee expects FY26 inflation to average 4%,
within its target range. Improved rabi and kharif harvests have moderated food
inflation, though weather-related risks persist.
Global Events & Market Impact
A tragic Air India crash in mid-June, which resulted in
over 260 casualties, impacted investor sentiment. The incident, coupled with
rising crude prices due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, led to
temporary volatility in the Indian markets.
Meanwhile, the S&P
500 gained 4.96% in June, led
primarily by strong performance in the IT sector.
Commodities
• Gold remained flat in
June but has posted over 20% YTD returns. Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties
and central bank purchases continue to support gold prices.
• Silver outperformed with an
8.75% gain in June, making it an
attractive option for investors with moderate risk appetite, driven by
industrial demand from solar and electronics sectors.
Market Valuation & Investment
Strategy
• The Market Cap to GDP ratio stands at 123, indicating moderate overvaluation.
While this suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, short-term investors
should tread carefully.
• Equity Allocation Strategy:
o Focus
on Large Cap and Hybrid Funds.
o Risk
taking investors may consider Banking
& Financial Services and Defence
Sector Funds as a tactical allocation
o Avoid
lump sum investments; instead, consider Systematic
Transfer Plan over 20–24 weeks.
o
Small Cap valuations
are stretched—adopt
a wait-and-watch approach.
Debt Market Outlook
• 10-year
G-Sec: 6.29%
• 5-year
G-Sec: 6.07%
Investment options:
• 3-year Banking & PSU Bonds and
high-quality corporate bonds are
likely to deliver solid returns.
• For
short-term parking (less than 1 year), consider ultra-short-term or money
market funds.
• Avoid credit risk funds due
to elevated risks in the current environment.
For personalised guidance, feel free to
reach your advisors 99401 16967 | ☎ 044 – 48612114
S.Sridharan, Founder, https://www.walletwealth.co.in/
Wallet Wealth LLP, AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distribtor,
2 nd Floor, No.8A, 2nd Main
Road,
Nanganallur, Chennai – 600 061
Disclaimer:
This document is intended for private
circulation. The views expressed are based on information deemed reliable but
are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Opinions are subject to change
without notice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making any investment
decisions.
